Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Types of Uncertainty

Types of Uncertainty
In looking to the future we are dealing with uncertainty.

There are three main types of uncertainty:

Risks – Where historical evidence of similar events allows us to estimate the probabilities of future outcomes.

Structural uncertainties – where the event is unique enough not to offer evidence of such probabilities.

Unknowable – where we cannot even imagine the event

We are well used to handling ‘ordinary’ risks. Managers regularly come into contact with such risks and indeed, this is aspect of entrepreneur activity managers are supposed to even relish.

Where no probable pattern of outcomes can be derived from previous experience the decision involves become much more a matter of judgment; and this is the area where scenario planning can make major contribution.
Types of Uncertainty
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Top most popular posts

Other articles around the world

  • Tana Toraja is a regency in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, is one of the major tourist destinations famous for its burial ritual. Located in mountaino...
  • Red meat is commonly considered to include beef, veal, pork and lamb (fresh, minced and frozen). In recent years, red meat has attracted much debate regard...
  • The brain is more powerful than any computer, far better than anything money can buy. Some people display eidetic imagery, commonly called photographic mem...